Publishing and books - the next ten years

From ireaderreview.com comes the following horizon scanning.

What will be the 10 biggest changes in 2010 through 2020?

In no particular order:

• 50-50 split between paper and electronic books.


• eReaders grow to over 100 million units in circulation.


• 2 to 3 Platform Companies dominate – Apple and Amazon are the likeliest.


• 2 to 3 of the Big Publishers survive and have the next most power (after platforms).


• 25% more People read than now. People read 40% more with eReaders than they did without eReaders.


• eBooks are priced between $4 and $10 with readers accepting these prices.


• Closed, walled gardens dominate and sustain eBooks (and Books).


• 1 to 2 companies dominate eBook sales – Amazon, Apple, and probably Google.


• Top 1% of authors make over a million (or close) every year and next 9% of authors earn a very good living.


• The core definition of books doesn’t change – color books, interactive books, video books and various other contraptions don’t kill or hurt books as we know them now.

Given that this scanning comes from ireaderreview.com, some caution must be taken (and this is reiterated in the report) in assessing these predictions. Information at: http://ireaderreview.com/2010/02/03/publishing-and-books-in-10-years/